In our latest edition of Executive Insights, Aleks Surowiak, Head of Sales and Marketing at Previsico, explores how probabilistic flood forecasting – and strong partnerships – are reshaping resilience. Aleks previously held business development roles at AI company Tractable and began his career in strategy consulting at Strategy& (PwC).

1. Your recent launch of Flood Intelligence 2.0 introduces probabilistic forecasting, hourly updates, and richer retrospective analysis. How do these advancements deepen the value that insurers and risk managers derive from live flood data compared with traditional approaches?

With Flood Intelligence 2.0, we are shifting from a deterministic approach, which provides only a single forecasted outcome, to a probabilistic framework. This means that instead of understanding whether it is going to flood, insurers and risk managers now gain insights into both the likelihood and potential severity of flooding events so they can decide on what action to take and when.

2. The shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting represents a significant change in how flood risk is communicated and acted upon. How should underwriters and risk teams interpret and operationalise probabilistic outputs to make more confident and resilient decisions?

The move from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting brings three key benefits: Enhanced risk quantification: Probabilistic forecasts allow users to better understand the range of potential outcomes, from minor flooding to severe events. Faster and more informed responses: Hourly updates ensure that live flood data reflects the latest conditions, allowing risk managers to take timely action. Richer retrospective analysis: By examining historical events with more granular data, insurers can refine models, validate assumptions, and identify previously unseen patterns, improving long-term risk assessment and resilience planning.

3. As flood risk grows more complex, what role do partnerships between technology providers, insurers, regulators, and local authorities play in strengthening resilience, and how is Previsico contributing to fostering these collaborations?

Previsico connects real-time and probabilistic flood intelligence with insurers, brokers, and corporates, creating an integrated ecosystem that enables insurers and brokers to refine risk management, regulators to enhance early warning systems, and the end user to make timely operational decisions. In essence, resilience is built through collaboration, and Previsico’s data, tools, and partnerships make it easier for everyone to act on the information, faster, smarter, and more proactively.

4. Flood Intelligence 2.0’s upgraded API promises richer outputs and more seamless integration. How does Previsico view the role of open, interoperable data in strengthening risk workflows across its customer-base, from insures to end-clients?

Flood Intelligence 2.0’s upgraded API delivers richer outputs and integrates seamlessly with all major data feeds, making it easy for insurers, brokers, and end-clients to embed flood intelligence directly into their workflows. By providing an improved API, Previsico ensures everyone can act on consistent, real-time insights faster, smarter, and with greater confidence.

5. Flood risk continues to intensify due to climate change and urban pressures. Beyond the technology itself, what broader shifts in industry mindset, collaboration or public‑private coordination are necessary to meaningfully boost flood resilience at
scale?

Flood risk is intensifying due to climate change and urban development. Meaningful flood resilience relies on a shift in industry mindset toward proactive risk management, greater collaboration between insurers, brokers and corporates. Partnerships play a crucial role in this ecosystem, our collaboration with Marsh, for example, demonstrates how combining Previsico’s real-time and probabilistic flood intelligence with Marsh’s work in risk advisory helping lead to better insurance outcomes overall. By working together, the industry can move from reactive responses to data-driven, coordinated strategies that protect communities and assets before disaster strikes.

About Previsico

Previsico specialises in real-time flood forecasting, providing early warnings that enable proactive action to minimise the impact of flooding worldwide. Spun out of Loughborough University in 2019, Previsico’s technology leverages over two decades of published research, combining hyperlocal forecasts, live hydrodynamic modelling, and IoT sensor technologies. The company’s services are trusted by global corporations, leading insurers, and government agencies.

For more information about Previsico: www.previsico.com